Forecasting: How hard it can be

Forecasting is not entirely rocket science but it could be complicated for some restaurants. Why is that? Because some areas where restaurants are located do not allow sane forecasting.

There are places where the flow of guests can be predictable. Low on weekdays, high on weekends, busy at lunch, slow on sundays and the like. Some restaurants get satisfied by subjective data, meaning no official figures to base their forecasts on. This can be very hard for restaurateurs if there will be any attempt to forecast.

Forecasting, if done properly, can save you and your staff a lot of effort, money and other resources.

A simple way to start collecting data for forecasting is to write down the number of guests who come everyday at particular times like lunch service or dinner service or whatever is applicable for your restaurant. Collect at least three months' worth of data to see the trend. Make sure to separate count for functions if you have any function service.

Now, while you are waiting for three months, monitor your number of guests on a daily basis and follow the trend every week taking into consideration holidays and special occasions during which you have to adjust your preparations.

Make also a daily menu tally to know the orders you have to prepare for each menu item on a daily basis. If you have a expansive menu, this will be a big job. A manual tally will do job but things will be faster if you automate it from your orderslip encoding.

Forecasting can save you money and effort in preparations. It also saves you space in your chillers, freezers and pantry as the data you get from forecasting will aid purchasing to order just in time.

Is forecasting hard? Yes and no. Yes, because it can make or break your business. No, because there are manual and technology-aided ways to do it easier.

Looking for kitchen staff?

Are you looking for employees for your kitchen?

One great place to start looking for chefs or cooks is through culinary schools or chef school. Schools usually have a directory of graduates from whom you can choose your future employees. It is usually good to hire from a culinary school, especially from a good one, since the education students get here is what you need for your restaurant. However, be mindful of other qualifications you might be looking for like proficiency on a certain cuisine or kitchen areas like cold kitchen, pastry or functions.

Another great place is by calling up your local restaurant or hotel association, if you have one. Other establishments might have a pool of applicants. It is also good to post an ad in your local newspaper or an industry-related publication.

How's your purchasing IQ?

Purchasing is one component or step in a restaurant's operations that is as essential as keeping your kitchen clean.

Purchasing is important in food cost control and control of other costs as well like manpower, transportation costs and communication. Right purchasing procedures will add to better inventory management, less spolage and maximization of your storage facilities.

Here aer simple purchasing tips that will bring you a lot of benefit:

* Search for institutional suppliers or those that can give you the best value for your money. There ae a lot of products that are produced and packaged for foodservice companies and restaurants. They come in bulk which costs you money compared to buying retail. This depends, of course, on your rate of consumption. Buy from distributors or wholesalers to get the best price. In addition, most distributors can give you credit terms for your purchases.

* Have a schedule. It will be a good habit to make and to teach your kitchen staff to request for things they will need in advance. Make a checklist of ALL the items they use in the kitchen and check against this list everytime you or they make a purchase request. This is to make sure that nothing is left out or forgotten. It is highly inconvenient, costly and irritating on the part of a purchaser to go back to the grocery fro one item the chef forgot to include in the market list.

* Take advantage of your being a restaurant. Ask for samples, good credit terms and good product return policies. Recipes, product use guides sometimes come with the products.

* Know your consumption rate. This will also require you to learn order rate and lead time for products.

Purchasing is one step, yes, but it is definitely an important one.

The need for a competent kitchen staff

Food is the a restaurant's main profit center or source of income. To expound on this, good food is necessary for a successful restaurant.

A restaurant's success, admittedly, will depend on other factors aside from the quality or quantity of the food served. However, for this article, I will zero in on the quality of the food.

What will be needed to create good food are good ingredients and skilled hands to cook the food. The capability of your cooking crew should be assessed and continuously monitored. What qualities should your cook have?

First, a cook should have good taste or the right taste your clients desire. A cook that does not have a good sense of taste will never, ever cook delicious food.

Second, it is necessary that your cook understands the logic behind standard recipes and good kitchen management. Standard recipes are the backbone of consistent food quality and quantity. Standard recipes also include sticking to the quality of ingredients needed for your recipe. Good kitchen management because standard portion sizes, yield and cost-efficient kitchen policies make for less spoilage and wastage.

Third, experience is necessary but not a must. However, be wary of hiring fresh graduates who might not have the guts when the customers pour in and are unable to focus.

When you hire kitchen staff, make sure to size them up in terms of culinary skills, kitchen management, hygiene and the desire to please guests.